Is a record super El Niño inevitable? What does it mean, if so?

A potentially historic warming in the Pacific is already impacting the weather. Here's the likelihood of a historic El Niño.

By Jonathan Belles and Jonathan Erdman•2 days agoUpdated: August 13, 2026, 10:25 am EDTPublished: August 13, 2026, 10:00 am EDT

Super El Niño could cause global supply issues for years

El Niño is already impacting hurricane season. And global rainfall and a historic El Niño are likely ahead by the end of the year. NOAA released its latest outlook and status update.

What has changed

• Waters have warmed to an impressive 2°C above average in the eastern Pacific, meaning that a very strong El Niño (or super) is here.
• "There is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says. The previous record is 2.5°C warmer than average for any three months.

This graph shows the forecast for the three-month relative oceanic niño index (RONI) from late summer 2026 through spring 2027. The darkest blue contours indicate the most probable range of the RONI, while lighter shades indicate forecasts of a lower chance as of August 2026.

(NOAA/CPC)

• El Niño is expected to be very strong through the fall and winter.

El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every three to four years. You can see the warming off the west coast of South America on the gif below.

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European models released at the beginning of the month caused many meteorologists to drop their jaws. And the European models had company.

Not only is this El Niño on pace for a record-strong event, but it could also smash previous records. Many computer model forecasts suggest it will eventually become the strongest El Niño in modern records sometime later this year.

Why does this matter?

So what does warm ocean water near the equator have to do with your weather?

While El Niño is only one influence on global weather, its heat transferred to the atmosphere can have a significant impact on weather patterns around the world from summer through fall, winter and spring.

And the stronger the El Niño, the more likely you'll see its typical weather impacts, such as a wet southern U.S. in winter or drought in Australia and Indonesia.

Fires in Indonesia are already being attributed to sinking, warming air associated with El Niño.

Earth also just tied its hottest month on record, aided by El Niño.

Typical global precipitation impacts during an El Niño.

(NOAA)

How is it impacting hurricane season?

Stronger El Niños often leave a thumbprint on hurricane seasons, both in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

On the Atlantic side, a strong El Niño often produces higher wind shear, especially over the Caribbean Sea. We have a full explanation of wind shear here, if you're interested.

Wind shear is one enemy of hurricanes and can even rip systems apart before they can become tropical storms.

You can see this record-strong wind shear in the Caribbean on the map below, highlighted in the box. Systems are finding small areas of more favorable winds elsewhere, as Tropical Storm Cristobal did earlier this week in the north Atlantic.

Current 30-day-averaged Main Development Region (10-20°N, 85-20°W) vertical wind shear is the strongest on record, recently pulling ahead of 2015. Strong vertical wind shear reduces Atlantic #hurricane activity. #ElNino has very strong imprints on this season already.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical storms and hurricanes over a given period, accounting for both how strong they were and how long they lasted.

Big winter impacts likely ahead

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive.

Remember those European models that we mentioned earlier. If those come to fruition, this is what this winter could look like:

Aug update from ECMWF predictive ensemble is genuinely extraordinary from extreme #ElNiño perspective. One implication: it is now indicating not only 70-100% odds of above avg winter precip California-wide, but also 70-100% odds of DJF 26-27 being among the top 20% of wettest CA.

Tweets and graphs related to models can be found here.

Hawaii can also suffer from rainier winters before drying out significantly in the year after El Niño.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest. That means that your heating bill won't be as steep this year.